In May 2026, the median San Carlos condo or townhome sold for $1,692,500. In June 2026, the median was $772,500. The difference came from what sold. Eight homes closed in May and six closed in June, and the June homes averaged 1,132 square feet against 1,562 in May.
That is the problem with judging San Carlos condos by their median. If you're comparing Peninsula cities and set your budget or your offer from the latest monthly figure, you're mostly measuring which handful of units sold that month. Other numbers in the same reports change much less from month to month. Over the past year they've shown something more useful: San Carlos condo buyers have had bargaining room that San Carlos house buyers haven't had once in more than a year.
A town of houses with a small condo market
San Carlos is mostly a single-family town. In 2025, the San Mateo County Association of Realtors recorded 243 single-family sales in San Carlos and 75 condo and townhome sales, which SAMCAR calls "common interest developments." Foster City, a few minutes east, recorded 140 condo and townhome sales that year.
Across a full year, 75 sales is enough to describe a market. San Carlos's 2025 condo median of $1,269,000 and $815 per square foot came from that whole year of sales. Over a single month, it isn't. Spread over twelve months, 75 sales comes to about six closings a month, and some months had fewer. SAMCAR's monthly reports, compiled from MLSListings data, show how much that small count moves the median:
| Month | Condo/townhome sales | Median sale price | Avg. home size, sq ft | % of list received |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | 7 | $1,265,000 | 1,304 | 100% |
| Oct 2025 | 10 | $1,517,500 | 1,688 | 98% |
| Nov 2025 | 7 | $1,325,000 | 1,253 | 97% |
| Dec 2025 | 5 | $1,655,000 | 1,955 | 102% |
| Jan 2026 | 3 | $732,500 | 1,013 | 98% |
| Feb 2026 | 2 | $1,170,000 | 1,131 | 98% |
| Mar 2026 | 6 | $1,428,500 | 1,260 | 103% |
| Apr 2026 | 8 | $1,227,500 | 1,330 | 104% |
| May 2026 | 8 | $1,692,500 | 1,562 | 105% |
| Jun 2026 | 6 | $772,500 | 1,132 | 100% |
| Jul 2026 | 8 | $1,387,500 | 1,484 | 105% |
| Aug 2026 | 5 | $800,000 | 1,089 | 100% |
| Sep 2026 | 4 | $1,242,500 | 1,351 | 96% |
The median price tends to rise and fall with home size. The two lowest medians, January and June 2026, came in months when the homes that sold averaged about 1,000 to 1,100 square feet. The two highest, December 2025 and May 2026, came when the average was well above 1,500. With two to ten sales a month, a single large townhome closing in place of a one-bedroom flat can move the median by hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Why the homes that sell differ so much in size
San Carlos's attached homes vary a lot, which is why the size of what sells changes so much from month to month.
The largest single community is Brittan Heights, on the ridge where Crestview meets Brittan Avenue. As of 2023 it had 433 units. About 250 were two-bedroom, two-bath homes and about 150 were three-bedroom, two-bath homes. The rest were one-bedroom units or townhouses. Apart from the townhouses, the homes are single-floor flats in three-story buildings set into the hillside, and each comes with an assigned carport.
Elsewhere, much of the newer attached housing comes from small infill buildings. The city's project records show a four-unit, three-story building at 549 Prospect Avenue, approved in April 2018, and a three-unit, three-story building at 575 Prospect Street, approved in August 2018. The city lists 782 Elm Street as a four-story building with four townhouse units.
A month when two Brittan Heights one-bedrooms and a two-bedroom close produces one median. A month when a couple of multi-story townhomes close produces a very different one. Neither tells you which way prices are moving.
Price per square foot doesn't solve this either. San Carlos's monthly condo median per square foot ranged from $743 in June 2026 to $1,037 in March 2026. A hillside flat and a new townhouse near downtown differ in more than size, and dividing price by square feet doesn't cancel out location, age or building type.
The two numbers that held steady
Two other columns in the same reports held up much better over the past 13 months: the share of list price that sellers received, and months of inventory. Both tell the same story, and San Carlos houses tell the opposite one.
Here is the range for each from September 2025 through September 2026:
- Single-family homes, share of list price received: 103% to 109% every month.
- Condos and townhomes, share of list price received: 96% to 105%.
- Single-family homes, months of inventory: 0.1 to 1.4.
- Condos and townhomes, months of inventory: 1.1 to 4.9.
Each month's condo figure for share of list received came in below that month's house figure, every month in the series. In July 2026, for example, houses closed at 109% of list and condos at 105%. In March 2026, condos sat on 4.9 months of supply while houses had 0.8.
September 2026, the latest month in SAMCAR's tables, released October 9, shows the widest gap of the year. San Carlos houses sold at 108% of list after an average of 18 days on market, with 0.8 months of inventory. San Carlos condos and townhomes sold at 96% of list after an average of 44 days, with 3.2 months of inventory. Countywide, condos and townhomes that month sold at 100% of list with 2.7 months of inventory, so San Carlos's attached market was softer than the county as a whole. September's four condo sales are still only four sales. The weaker bargaining position for condo sellers shows up across the whole year, though, not only in September.
What that means at the offer stage
For a San Carlos house buyer, the list price has usually been the starting point for bidding. In 2025, single-family homes there sold at a median of $2,650,000, at 106% of list, after an average of 17 days on market.
For condo and townhome buyers, the past year looked different. On average, sellers received about the list price, sometimes a few points above and sometimes a few below. Homes took longer to sell, and buyers usually had more than a month of supply to choose from. In practice, a condo buyer usually has time to compare a Brittan Heights flat with a townhouse closer to downtown, ask questions and work out terms, while a house buyer in the same town usually doesn't.
In practical terms:
- Look at recent sales in the same building or product type rather than the citywide monthly median. A one-bedroom flat and a three-story townhouse don't belong in the same comparison.
- Check months of inventory and days on market before setting your offer strategy. Those two numbers reflect the condo market more reliably than the median does, and over the past year they've usually been closer to the condo buyer's side.
- Keep the single-family numbers out of your condo budget. Bidding above list has been the norm for San Carlos houses, and it doesn't carry over to the condo side.
What new supply would change
New for-sale attached homes would make San Carlos's condo stock more varied, not more uniform. The projects in the pipeline are mostly small.
- 1383 Laurel Street, downtown. Grove Construction advertises 16 one-, two- and three-bedroom condos for sale. The builder's planned schedule is a fall 2026 start and spring 2028 delivery.
- 552–560 El Camino Real. The Planning Commission approved a four-story building with 24 condominiums and two commercial units in January 2019. The approved plans include one-, two- and three-bedroom homes over ground-floor commercial space.
- 11 El Camino Real. According to REBusinessOnline, SummerHill broke ground in July 2026 on 251 units, including 38 affordable units, on a former CVS site, with completion slated for 2028. These homes are rentals and won't add to the for-sale count.
- The Northeast Area. The city's Northeast Area Specific Plan took effect July 22, 2026. It anticipates 1,890 housing units between Highway 101 and Old County Road, north of Holly Street to Belmont Creek, in an area that has no housing now. Those 1,890 units are the plan's capacity. None have been built.
Together, these projects mean a sale in a new downtown building could someday close in the same month as a hillside flat, which would make the monthly median even harder to read. For a while yet, the share of list received and months of inventory will remain the better gauges.
Quick answers
Is the San Carlos condo median useless? Not over a full year. The 2025 annual figures were based on 75 sales and give a reasonable baseline. Within a single month, two to ten sales of very different homes can't support a reliable trend.
Did San Carlos condo prices drop in September 2026? The median, $1,242,500, was above August's $800,000. The share of list received fell to 96%, the lowest of the 13 months shown here. Of the two, the share of list says more about bargaining power.
Does this mean San Carlos houses are getting easier to buy? September 2026 still showed houses at 108% of list with under one month of inventory, so the data doesn't support that.
If you're weighing a San Carlos condo or townhome and want to see how recent sales in that building or product type compare with its list price, Suzanne Garcia can go through those comparable sales with you and help you shape an offer around how that part of the market is actually moving. Let's Connect.
