In March 2026, Willow Glen's own price data contradicted itself. The neighborhood's average sale price stood at $2.1 million, up 12.3 percent from a year earlier. That same month, the median sale price was $1.9 million, down 6.1 percent year over year, with 142 homes sold that month compared to 149 a year prior. Both numbers came from the same data set, covering the same zip code, in the same month.
That isn't a typo and it isn't noise. It's what happens when a single average is asked to describe two markets moving in opposite directions at once. If you're comparing Willow Glen against other Peninsula and South Bay neighborhoods using one headline price, you're not looking at a neighborhood. You're looking at a blend of a house market that's still tight and competitive and a condo and townhouse market that has quietly loosened.
What's Actually Selling, and How Fast
Look at single-family homes on their own and the picture is unambiguous. In June 2026, 57 single-family homes sold in Willow Glen at a median price of $1.97 million, spending a median of just 12 days on the market, and closing at 103 percent of list price on average, or roughly $1,110 per square foot. A year earlier, in June 2025, 55 homes sold at a slightly higher median of $2.06 million and $1,164 per square foot. Prices per square foot have eased a bit, but the pace and the over-asking pattern have not. A house in Willow Glen today still draws multiple offers and still moves in under two weeks.
Condos and townhomes tell a different story. Public market tracking through spring 2026 showed the segment with more listings sitting active than a year earlier, fewer closed sales, and softer pricing across the board. Where houses are still fielding four offers on average, the attached-home segment has been sitting quieter, with buyers holding more leverage than the neighborhood's reputation would suggest. Condo and townhouse prices in Willow Glen have generally clustered in the high $700,000s in 2026, a fraction of what a single-family home commands in the same zip code, and the gap between the two segments' momentum has been widening rather than closing.
Put the two side by side and the composite median makes sense again:
| Segment | Recent activity (2026) | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Single-family homes | 57 sold in June 2026, 12-day median time on market, 103% sale-to-list ratio | Still a tight seller's market |
| Condos/townhomes | More active listings, fewer closings than a year prior | Softening, more room to negotiate |
A handful of large, updated single-family sales can pull an average upward even while the more common transaction, increasingly a condo or townhome sitting longer and selling for less, drags the median down. The contradiction in March's headline numbers isn't a data error. It's the fingerprint of a mix shift.
Why the Split Isn't Closing on Its Own
This is where it gets useful for anyone deciding whether to buy a house or a condo here, because the gap between the two segments isn't just a temporary market mood. It's structural, and the clearest evidence sits three blocks from Lincoln Avenue.
In December 2025, San Jose approved a seven-story, 126-unit apartment building at 940 Willow Street, on the corner of Willow Street and Kotenberg Avenue, replacing a liquor store. The project moved forward under California's builder's remedy, a state law that prevents cities without a state-compliant housing plan from blocking qualifying developments, combined with a density bonus that effectively doubled what the site could otherwise hold. Twenty-six of the 126 units are designated affordable. Neighbors appealed, arguing the seven-story scale didn't fit a neighborhood of single-family streets. Maren Sederquist, president of the Willow Glen Neighborhood Association, told San José Spotlight that "there are no buildings even half the height within a mile of it." The appeal didn't succeed. In March 2026, the San Jose Planning Commission upheld the approval.
Compare that to what happens when someone tries to add supply on the single-family side. In November 2023, San Jose's City Council approved a rezoning at 1655 Lincoln Avenue that would allow up to five new homes to replace the one house currently on a one-acre lot, a request that still required additional development permits before construction could start. Five homes, after a multi-year process, on a parcel roughly the same size as the one that yielded 126 apartments a few blocks away.
That asymmetry is the mechanism behind the price data. State housing law is a far more effective lever for unlocking multifamily and condo supply than it is for expanding the single-family stock lot by lot. New apartments and condos can get fast-tracked over local objection. New houses mostly can't, because there's no equivalent state tool that turns one single-family lot into several without years of individual entitlement work. San Jose's broader housing plan commits the city to more than 62,000 new homes by 2031, with 15,000 required to be affordable, and projects like 940 Willow Street are how that number gets hit. Almost none of that pipeline shows up as new detached houses in Willow Glen. It shows up as apartments and, eventually, more condos competing for the same buyer pool that's already sitting on more inventory than it was a year ago.
What This Means Depending on What You're Shopping For
If a house is the goal, treat Willow Glen like the tightest segment in San Jose, because the data says it is. Citywide, the single-family sale-to-list ratio slipped to 101.3 percent in July 2026, homes were taking about 27 days to sell on average, and roughly six weeks of inventory sat on the market by mid-August. Willow Glen's houses are outperforming that citywide trend, not tracking it. Come in prepared for a 10-to-14-day window and offers at or above asking, and know that the neighborhood is not uniform. Pricing and pace differ meaningfully between the walk-to-town blocks near Lincoln Avenue, Palm Haven, and The Willows compared with the Dry Creek area or St. Francis Woods, so a single "Willow Glen number" can mislead you street by street just as easily as it does segment by segment.
If a condo or townhome fits your budget and lifestyle better, this is a rare stretch where you may have more negotiating room in Willow Glen than the neighborhood's overall reputation for competition suggests. That said, the supply story isn't finished. No groundbreaking date has been announced yet for 940 Willow Street, but its approval sets a precedent that's likely to draw more proposals along Willow Street, Lincoln Avenue, and Bird Avenue in the years ahead. More attached-home supply arriving over time is generally good for buyers and something sellers in that segment should plan around rather than be surprised by.
If you're selling a single-family home here, the current data supports a confident pricing strategy built on genuine multiple-offer activity rather than hope. If you're selling a condo or townhome, expect a more patient process, and lean harder on presentation and pricing precision to stand out against a bigger active pool.
A Few Questions Worth Answering Directly
Will the 940 Willow Street project change home values on nearby streets? Its effect will land first in the rental and condo supply, since the building has no groundbreaking date announced as of March 2026. Single-family comparables nearby aren't directly affected by an apartment building's approval, though it does signal that more density is coming to the Willow Street corridor over time.
Is Willow Glen still a seller's market in 2026? For single-family homes, yes, based on the sub-two-week time on market and over-asking sale-to-list ratio through June 2026. For condos and townhomes, the data points toward more balance, with inventory up and pricing softer than the prior year.
What is builder's remedy, in plain terms? It's a state law that blocks California cities from rejecting qualifying housing projects when the city lacks a housing plan the state has approved as compliant. San Jose was in that position when Redco Development filed its application for 940 Willow Street, which is part of why the project moved forward despite organized neighborhood opposition.
If you're weighing a house against a condo in Willow Glen, or trying to figure out how a market like this compares to what's happening on the Peninsula in Burlingame, San Mateo, or Belmont, that's exactly the kind of segment-by-segment reading Suzanne Garcia does for clients before they write an offer or set a list price. Let's Connect and talk through which side of this market actually fits what you're trying to do.
